Carbon, Exponential Growth, and the Albedo Effect

Carbon & Exponential Growth

When we learned about Climate Sensitivity, the nature is that carbon levels would double after a regular interval of time. This is the basis of exponential growth. Under exponential growth, the amount of something will double under a linear time interval, such as every five years. David Suzuki talks about exponential growth and population threats in this video. This is something that causes thinking fallacies in many people. We may look at someone sounding the alarm of exponential growth when we are at 1% capacity, and easily brush off the warning. However in a set amount of time, that 1% will double to 2%, then to 4%, to 8%, 16%, 32%, 64%, and then you blow past carrying capacity in only seven of these linear interval periods. Carbon pollution has been exponential, and we have been skyrocketing in the past 50-100 years to a place we have never been before. Where we are actively changing the chemical composition of the planet to something unlivable very soon. 

Ice Sheet Stability

The biggest danger is that global warming could cause the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Greenland Ice Sheet to melt, which would destabilize the ice sheets and create a situation that is out of our control. We are getting very close to this point. A large part of Antarctica is melting and cannot be stopped. Further degradation is almost certain and unstoppable. Global warming is accelerating the pace of disintegration. There is probably nothing that can be done to stop this. It can be slowed down, but it is difficult at this point to find any physical process that can stop it. The system is evolving very fast, and is progressing exactly how you would expect it to if it was about to collapse. The retreat of the grounding line has been accelerating in recent decades. The last time ice sheets disintegrated was 14,000 years ago, when sea levels rose by 20 meters in 400 years, or one meter every 20 years. This is really happening, and there is nothing to stop it now. The weak underbelly of Antarctica is floating out to sea, and there is not much to hold it back.

What is the Albedo Effect?

Ice reflects a lot of infrared sunlight and heat. Same principles of how Igloos work. As warming occurs, there is more glacial ice melting, at the tune of hundreds of gigatons every years. Surface water absorbs sunlight and heat, instead of reflecting it, which causes more heat to be stored in our oceans and atmosphere, which causes more warming and more ice melt. This is the go to example of a Feedback Loop. 

“Arctic Death Spiral.”

The Arctic is melting due to the albedo effect, which is a process where ice reflects sunlight back into space, but when the ice melts, the darker land underneath absorbs more sunlight, which causes the ice to melt even faster. This is causing a mass extinction event, which is a sudden loss of a large number of species. Extinction is a natural process, but the current rate of extinction is 1,000 to 10,000 times faster than the background rate. This is being caused by habitat loss, invasive species, over-harvesting, pollution, and anthropogenic global warming.

Here are some additional details about each of these factors:

• Habitat loss: This is the destruction of natural habitats, such as forests and wetlands, which can lead to the loss of species that rely on those habitats.
• Invasive species: These are species that are introduced to an area where they are not native and can outcompete or prey on native species, leading to their decline or extinction.
• Over-harvesting: This is the removal of too many individuals from a population, which can lead to the decline or extinction of that population.
• Pollution: This can harm or kill organisms directly, or it can contaminate their food or water, making it difficult for them to survive.
• Anthropogenic global warming: This is the warming of the planet caused by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels. This warming is causing the Arctic to melt, which is leading to a loss of habitat for many species.

It is important to take action to address these factors, as they are all contributing to the mass extinction event that is currently underway. We can do this by protecting habitats, reducing pollution, and taking steps to mitigate climate change.